Many horse players are surely hoping Saturday’s Kentucky Derby offers a repeat performance of last year’s race, when Rich Strike — an 80-1 long shot acquired in a $30,000 claiming race — stunned the field to grab the first leg of the Triple Crown. That relatively unknown horse rewarded his few backers with the second-biggest win payoff in race history, a $163.60 return on a $2 win bet. That ranked behind only Donerail, who at 91-1 paid $184.90 on a $2 win bet in 1913.
While Rich Strike was an outlier, this year’s Run for the Roses appears to be wide open, a sense that was only heightened after morning-line favorite Forte scratched on Saturday.
Who could duplicate Rich Strike’s feat this time around other than Confidence Game, my pick to win? Here are two candidates to consider along with their morning line odds and the minimum odds you should demand to take the risk on the first Saturday in May.
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And see here for a guide to finding a winning Kentucky Derby bet at a fair price, while my trifecta and superfecta picks are here.
No. 3 Two Phil’s (12-1)
Fair value odds: 8-1 or higher
His 5¼-length victory in the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks was over Turfway Park’s synthetic Tapeta track, leading to some curiosity about his performance on dirt. Don’t worry: It’s solid. The son of Hard Spun has hit the board in four of his six starts on a fast dirt surface. He’s also one of the fastest horses in the field, earning triple-digit speed figures from the Daily Racing Form, Brisnet and TimeFormUS. In this 20-horse field, only Forte has also earned speed figures of 100 or better from all three outlets. (Practical Move also had, but he was scratched on Thursday.)
I would go as far to say if Two Phil’s wins the Derby, he should be considered a Triple Crown threat. He has the speed to tackle the Preakness and the stamina to carry that speed over 1½ miles in the Belmont Stakes.
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No. 1 Hit Show (30-1)
Fair value odds: 15-1 or higher
Fresh off a second-place finish in the Grade II Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct, a race rated as fast to the half-mile mark and final time, Hit Show drew the rail for Saturday’s race. In years past, that might have been a huge concern, but Churchill Downs has since replaced the old starting gate — a main gate for the first 14 runners and an auxiliary gate for the remaining runners — with a continuous gate that doesn’t hamper the horse in Post 1 as much, if at all.
The distance shouldn’t be a problem for him. His sire, Candy Ride, and his maternal grandsire, Tapit, provide all the stamina he needs to carry his speed the full 10 furlongs. The biggest challenge is taking another step forward in speed off the latest stakes win — the Grade III Withers in February — and there is no reason to think he can’t. His final speed figures have been trending up since his maiden win last winter at Keeneland, with corresponding rises in his pace figures to the half-mile mark.
As for connections, trainer Brad Cox has returned a net profit of $0.29 for every $2 win wager on one of his horses in a graded stakes race, and jockey Manuel Franco, aboard Hit Show for his last two wins, has returned $0.64 on each Cox horse he’s ridden over the past 60 days.
This story originally included Lord Miles and Skinner as compelling long shots, but both scratched.
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